Quarterly Letters & Insights
CAZ Investments Quarterly Letter 2025 – Quarter 4
Thank you to everyone who joined us for the 10th anniversary of our Themes event, which was the largest ever and included more than 750 registrations from people all over the world. We celebrated the 10th anniversary and launched the year-long celebration of our 25th year as a firm. CAZ was founded in August of 2001, just weeks before the events of September 11th reshaped markets. Today’s environment is different in many respects, but familiar in others.
The last twelve months have reminded us again that markets rarely unfold in straight lines. Coming into 2025, investors were grappling with policy uncertainty, persistent inflation pressures, and asset valuations that pushed the boundaries of historical precedent. Now, as we close out the year, it has become increasingly obvious that several major themes are converging at once: a reshaping of the geopolitical landscape, structural imbalances in global supply chains, accelerating dispersion between winners and losers in public markets, and the fastest innovation cycle in modern history.
Our response has remained consistent for a quarter century. We do not attempt to predict markets or time cycles. Instead, we focus on what we can assess with a high degree of confidence, allocate our personal capital accordingly, and design portfolios intended to reduce risk first and compound capital over time.
That discipline is reflected in where we currently sit on the CAZ Scale. After evaluating valuations, correlations, macro conditions, and the balance of risks and opportunities across asset classes, we remain firmly at a “1.” In our view, the risk-reward profile of traditional risk assets remains unattractive, and we believe that there are substantially more attractive opportunities in the private markets.
As we emphasized during our Themes for 2026 event, the most important trend for investors today is the
profound bifurcation between traditional assets and the alternatives ecosystem. For those willing to look forward with discipline instead of backward with nostalgia, the opportunity set is extraordinary.
As always, our goal is to share what we can predict with a high level of certainty, how we interpret the current data, and most importantly, how we are allocating our personal capital.
At the bottom of this letter, you will find bullet point summaries of the slides from the Themes keynote
presentation that we delivered to those in attendance, followed by the graphics themselves. It is always better for everyone to hear the full details in person, so we hope that you will make Themes for 2027 a priority on your
calendar.
What should be clear from the information shared is that while risks remain elevated across many traditional assets, compelling opportunities continue to exist for investors willing to be disciplined, thoughtful, and long-term in their approach. We continue to see attractive risk-adjusted opportunities in the private markets, particularly in areas where correlation is lower and cash flows are more predictable.
As always, we remain deeply aligned with our Partners. We invest alongside you, as the first and typically largest investors, and we evaluate every opportunity based on what we demand for our family capital. That alignment is foundational to who we are.
If you have questions about anything discussed in this letter or would like to talk through how these Themes may apply to your own portfolio, our Team is always here as a resource. We value those conversations and the opportunity to help you design your allocations.
We are profoundly grateful for the trust you place in us and for the relationships that have been built over the past 25 years. The growth of the CAZ network has been organic, referral-driven, and rooted in shared values, and we do not take that lightly. We hope you make 2026 an outstanding year of impact.
All our very best,
The CAZ Investments Team
Themes for 2026 — Presentation Summary
CAZ Journey & Network
- CAZ was founded to invest our Shareholders’ capital alongside our own and invite a small, aligned Network to do the same.
- Over 25 years, the CAZ Network has grown organically through trust and referrals.
- Approximately 90% of our investors were introduced through someone already in the Network.
- Our global Network now includes ~8,700+ Partners across 50 states and 41 countries.
- The power of the CAZ ecosystem is the Network itself.
The State of the World
- Valuations across public markets are once again at historically extreme levels.
- A small number of stocks represent nearly half of total market capitalization.
- Those same stocks have demonstrated meaningful volatility.
- Inflation has cooled to more normal levels, but long-term interest rates remain elevated.
- Government debt remains at nosebleed levels and net interest expense continues to rise.
- Consumer financial stress is increasing, with low savings rates and rising delinquencies.
- Traditional asset classes have offered limited diversification during recent stress periods.
Portfolio Construction & Risk
- Correlations across traditional asset classes have increased materially, reducing diversification benefits.
- The traditional 60/40 portfolio has failed to provide downside protection in recent stress regimes.
- Portfolios incorporating less-correlated alternatives have historically reduced drawdowns and lowered volatility.
Where We Are Investing Our Personal Capital
Energy
- Global energy demand continues to rise meaningfully.
- Years of underinvestment have constrained supply, creating an attractive supply / demand setup.
- Private upstream energy asset valuations remain well below historical levels.
- We believe the current setup offers one of the most attractive risk / reward profiles we have seen in decades.
Private Markets & GP Stakes
- Assets allocated to private markets continue to grow structurally.
- GP Stakes provide access to predictable, contractually-obligated management fees.
- Ownership of fund managers offers diversification across strategies and vintages.
- GP economics have historically proven resilient even during weak M&A environments.
- The GP Stakes secondary market has grown substantially as liquidity needs increase.
Professional Sports
- Cord-cutting has made live sports content increasingly valuable.
- Sports franchises generate highly recurring and contractual revenue.
- Professional sports have demonstrated low correlation to traditional assets.
- We view sports ownership as a long-duration, resilient real-asset exposure.
Defense & Space Technology
- Global defense spending continues to rise across administrations.
- Technological advancement is reshaping defense and space economics.
- The global space economy is expanding rapidly.
- These assets exhibit differentiated drivers and lower correlation.
- We believe this theme will play an increasingly important role in future portfolios.
Access & Responsibility
- Regulatory changes have expanded access to private market investments.
- With broader access comes the ability for many investors to participate in opportunities that can provide significant diversification for their portfolio.
- Education, structure, alignment, and discipline matter more than ever.
- CAZ’s role is to help Partners navigate these opportunities thoughtfully and prudently.